Battle of COVID-19 Statistics

A new battle is raging over the correct epidemeological estimates for the COVID-19 pandemic.

Is COVID-19 the worst pandemic since 1918 Spanish flu that killed up to 100 million people?  Is COVID-19 comparable to the Black Death of 1347 AD that killed up to 200 million people?

Or is COVID-19 just a garden variety, typical seasonal flu that infects about 8% of the population, and kills 0.1% of them?

Here is what you need to know:

Standford University conducted antibody testing on 3300 people in Santa Clara County, California on April 1st estimate that 2.5% to 4.2% of population are or were infected with COVID-19.

However, only 956 confirmed cases of COVID-19 existed at that time, as reported to CDC.

Therefore, CFR (Case Fatality Rate) is estimated to be 50 to 85 times lower than previously projected.

The CFR for COVID-19 is now estimated to be 0.9%, approx. equivalent to a bad seasonal flu, or the 1957-58 H2N2 flu that killed 100,000 people.

The Santa Clara study: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1

A sensational video on the Santa Clara study: https://youtu.be/yffApE9I7so

Confirmation, or Confirmation Bias ?

One of the Doctors in the Santa Clara study (see above), has previously warned that bad or misleading data was being used for fear mongering purposes by people who saw monsters under every bed.

In a Mar. 17, 2020 article, Dr. Ioannides warned about the tiny amount of good data (bolstered by lots of bad data) that projected towards doomsday scenarios, possibly making mountains out of mole hills.   See:    https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/ 

Looked at the other way, could Dr. Ioannides be biased towards downplaying all risks (ie. use rose coloured glasses) until a more severe interpretation can be justified?

Bad Science, Bad Statistics ?

This Santa Clara study has prompted many accusations of bad science.   See:    https://www.mercurynews.com/feud-over-stanford-coronavirus-study-the-authors-owe-us-all-an-apology.

A similar, yet smaller study (with less accurate projections from the sample to general population) was done in Los Angeles, with similar results.   See: 
http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/phcommon/public/media/mediapubhpdetail.cfm?prid=2328

The analogy of the kitten attacking the elephant, causing the elephant to jump off the roof may apply.  I'm not sure why we had an elephant on the roof, but that is a different story for another time.  Obviously, the kitten was of minimal danger to the elephant, but provoked the elephant to take drastic steps.

In a similar way, shutting down the world economy because a kitten scratched your ankle will have severe consequences in food production, hunger, mental health, loss of jobs & income, bankrupting businesses, other non-reverseable consequences, etc.

As usual, both sides may be correct, with the truth somewhere in the middle between these two extremes.

The answer will be known approximately 10 years after it's all over.  Too late to make a difference.  Therefore we have to guess today.

China, Italy, cruise ships, and New York City all proved there is a real cost to ignoring, or downplaying COVID-19.

Financial markets, business failures, unemployment, suicides, violence, and crazed shooters have proven the huge consequences of doing a hard stop to a national economy, let alone the entire world.

Some Quick, Rough Calculations

The Santa Clara Study found that the population-weighted prevalence was 2.81% (95CI 2.24-3.37%).

In N. America, the average person knows 2,000 other people, and hangs out on a regular basis with 200 other people within a typical year.  At a COVID-19 prevelence rate of 2.81%, the typical person likely has contact with between 4.5 to 6.74 persons who have been infected by OVID-19.  If up to 60% of people infected are asymptomatic carriers, that means the average person regularly hangs out with 2.7 to 4.0 asymptomatic carriers.

Therefore, it is highly likely you will become infected if you come out of isolation and do not practice perfect social distancing.  The higher the prevelance rate goes (others flaunting social distancing), the worse the risks become.

Conclusion

Based on all the above, and all the research I have done since Dec. 15, 2019, I conclude and recommend:

1. COVID-19 is a bad flu, and can easily kill the elderly, and those with prior medical problems (smoking, COPD, obesity, high blood pressure, immune system weak or compromised, etc.).
2. COVID-19 is highly infectious, and easily spread.  Most (up to 60%) has no or minimal symptoms, and therefore may become covert carriers of the disease, who unknowingly infect many people around them.
3. Those who are elderly, high risk, or are able to do so should take all reasonable steps to avoid being infected.
4. The economy can limp along while social distancing is applied for those willing to risk exposure.  This will cause a second wave of infections to begin as the virus starts to spread again, and cause more deaths.  If inadequate protection is used, or COVID-19 is worse than the optimistic assumptions, this may force a second retreat to lockdown and quarantine.
5. The only guarantee we have is through God, by loving God with unconditional love, and obeying His commandments.  Doing that guarantees you a spot in Heaven.  Ignoring these facts about God will guarantee you to burn and torment in the Lake of Fire (ie. Hell) for ever and ever.  Your choice.

https://et-manitoulin.blogspot.com/2019/12/gods-26-commandments-for-christians.html